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Presidential Primary Campaigns: Both Parties Caught Flat-footed

“More challenging than expected.” Perhaps coining the biggest understatement yet about the 2016 presidential primary campaigns, political analysts Bruce Haynes and Steve McMahon of Purple Strategies shared their takes on this year’s elections during an April 18 general session at the NAPA 401(k) Summit.

What’s behind this year’s challenging situation? Haynes attributes it largely to two factors — candidates riding a populist wave, and “large numbers of voters who don’t feel like anyone is standing up for them.” Said Haynes, “they have found a vessel” — for the Republicans, Donald Trump, and for the Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

“There are genies that can’t be put back in the bottle” as a result of what has been happening in this election cycle, said Haynes — and they spell less control by the major parties. Among them: raising money via the Internet, less party control over access, and who a credible candidate is. “The parties aren’t going to have the death grip they used to,” he said, adding, “There’s this new way that people are engaging in the process outside of the party structure. The parties are kind of caught flat-footed.”

In response to a question by moderator Brian Graff, the American Retirement Association's CEO and NAPA's Executive Director, regarding the role celebrity is playing this year, McMahon said that we may be entering an era of such a thing. “Voters expressing frustration will support candidates who are not politicians,” he said, adding that in his view the parties have been clumsy and comical in dealing with the role celebrity is playing.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have negative ratings from the voters above 50%. Can candidates with high negative ratings win? McMahon thinks it’s possible. “Elections are about choices,” he said, adding that it’s possible to not like someone, but to vote for them. “Ultimately,” he said, “this election is about what kind of country we want to be. Ultimately people are going to make judgments about issues.”

But of course, more is in play than just the White House. Both contend that the Republicans may lose seats in the Senate; Haynes called it “a big defense map for the Republicans.” And he added that ticket-splitting between parties may also affect Senate races.

“If there were a ‘purple’ (i.e., a blend of Democrats and Republicans) party, it would be enormously attractive,” said McMahon. Still, he noted, ballot access at the state and local level affects whether a third party would be successful. And he pointed out that generally, gerrymandering has taken place to such a degree that incumbents have more to worry about from challengers in primary elections than in general elections.

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